Posted by
Alex Wallenwein on Tuesday, January 22, 2008 9:19:25 PM
... and then there were three.
From a debate stage of formerly ten, we are now down to five. Gilmore, Thomson, Tancredo, Keyes (who only appeared in two debates), Hunter - and now Fred Thompson, the "new Ronald Reagan" himself, have all fallen by the wayside.
The three most likely remaining candidates after the next round of dropouts will be McCain, Romney - and Ron Paul!
If Rudy makes as poor a showing in Florida as he made elsewhere so far, he may drop out. That will leave Romney, McCain, the Huckster, and Ron Paul.
Huckabee has no money. Period. His campaign is asking people to accept salary cuts - and they refuse! Can you imagine Ron Paul in that situation? His people will work for free if they have to, or if they can't then someone will - because tens of thousands already do, voluntarily. Ron didn't even have to ask them. They stepped forward on their own.
Besides, Ron wouldn't have to cut salaries because he doesn't spend money like a drunken sailor in a high-end whorehouse.
McCain's finances don't look so good, either. Yes, he won South Carolina - but how will he compete on Super Tuesday after having spent his entire wad on Florida?
So, it's either down to three-way race between Ron, Mitt, and John, or between Ron, Mitt, and Fruity Rudy - if Rudy makes it past Florida.
But it is entirely possible that Fruity will quit after Florida AND that McCain will run out of money. That would leave only Ron and Mitt in the race! Mitt is dumb enough to throw his millions to the wind just get another notch in his belt, so he will likely outlast any others - other then Ron Paul, that is.
Can you imagine a two-way debate between these two contestants? Who is going to back Mitt up with his uniformed but snide comments and his behind-the-hand snickering when he faces Dr. Paul alone on the stage. How will he hold up on economic issues? Or on credibility? Or on healthcare, or abortion, or tax cuts, or immigration, or gun control, or - worst of all cases - on the dollar and monetary policy?
Or, let's say McCain gets matching funding and he remains after Romney and Giuliani quit (just for arguemnt's sake, alright?). How can Mr. Amnesty stand up to Dr. No on that one in front of grass roots Republican voters?
All Ron Paul has to do to win the nomination is to "show up" so to speak. All he has to do is to hang in there - and his current single-digit to lower double-digit polling numbers (and his opponent's so-far high double-digit numbers) become what they always were:
Meaningless.
As long as there are sufficient other candidates to steal the poll-numbers limelight from Ron Paul, Neoconservatives will still feel comforted to some degree - but what if they all fall off the bus except for one? By virtue of his then-status as the ultimate survivor, all of the spotlight will be on Ron Paul regardless of poll numbers!
This is shaping up to be a most interesting race, indeed...